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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Urbana weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Urbana's high today between 79° and 83°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 83°, with a 59% chance of rain.

81°69°
83°70°
80°66°
66°59°
64°55°
67°55°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±6°Sundaysplit ±9°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Heavy drizzle
Today 81°·Low 68°·Rain 23%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Light drizzle
Today 79°·Low 70°·Rain 23%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Thunderstorm
Today 83°·Low 70°·Rain 100%
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Urbana weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Urbana weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Urbana swings 59°F across the year, from 84°F highs in June to 25°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 37 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
June
84°F average high
Coldest month
January
25°F average low
Wettest month
July
37 in a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and December
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
42,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Urbana and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Urbana hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Urbana 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
81° 69°
±5°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
83° 70°
±6°
Sun
Drizzle
80° 66°
±9°
Mon
Light rain
66° 59°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
64° 55°
±5°
Wed
Cloudy
67° 55°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
68° 56°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
70° 56°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
72° 56°
±7°
Sun
Cloudy
74° 54°
±9°
Mon
Light drizzle
71° 53°
±11°
Tue
Light rain
64° 53°
±20°
Wed
Cloudy
65° 47°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
71° 48°
models agree

Urbana, Illinois (IL) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 84°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 25°F), with roughly 37 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Urbana right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Urbana climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
38°
25°
Feb
49°
29°
Mar
53°
34°
Apr
64°
44°
May
76°
55°
Jun
84°
64°
Jul
83°
66°
Aug
82°
65°
Sep
78°
60°
Oct
67°
49°
Nov
53°
38°
Dec
43°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Urbana?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F96±1.1 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F97±1.1 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°79° to 83°±77%23% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±6°81° to 86°±35%24% to 59% chance
Sun±9°76° to 84°±6%54% to 60% chance
Mon±4°64° to 68°±5%64% to 69% chance
Tue±5°61° to 66°±27%14% to 41% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Urbana

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
18:56
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Urbana today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Urbana today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Urbana today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Urbana and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Urbana?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Urbana (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Urbana?
June is typically the warmest month in Urbana, with average highs around 84°F.
How cold does Urbana get?
The coldest month in Urbana is January, when overnight lows average about 25°F.
How much rain does Urbana get?
Urbana sees roughly 37 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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