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Vail weather

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Vail weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Vail weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Vail swings 63°F across the year, from 101°F highs in July to 38°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 12 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
101°F average high
Coldest month
January
38°F average low
Wettest month
January
12 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, November and December
Residents
10,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Vail and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Vail hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Vail 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split

Vail, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 101°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 38°F), with roughly 12 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Vail right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Vail climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
58°
38°
Feb
63°
41°
Mar
67°
44°
Apr
80°
51°
May
88°
61°
Jun
97°
70°
Jul
101°
77°
Aug
96°
74°
Sep
95°
70°
Oct
87°
61°
Nov
71°
48°
Dec
68°
44°

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F96±1.2 mph8491% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F93±2.3 mph4972% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Common questions

What's the weather in Vail today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Vail today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Vail today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Vail and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Vail?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Vail forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Vail?
July is typically the warmest month in Vail, with average highs around 101°F.
How cold does Vail get?
The coldest month in Vail is January, when overnight lows average about 38°F.
How much rain does Vail get?
Vail sees roughly 12 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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