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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Waco weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 96° in Waco today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 96°, with a 2% chance of rain.

96°75°
96°76°
98°76°
98°77°
96°77°
97°76°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
97°
Partly cloudy
Today 97°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Partly cloudy
Today 96°·Low 75°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Cloudy
Today 94°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
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Waco weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Waco weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Waco swings 61°F across the year, from 102°F highs in August to 41°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 47 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
102°F average high
Coldest month
January
41°F average low
Wettest month
May
47 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and November
Residents
132,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Waco and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Waco hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Waco 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
96° 75°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
96° 76°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
98° 76°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
98° 77°
±5°
Tue
Mostly clear
96° 77°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
97° 76°
±7°
Thu
Cloudy
96° 76°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
94° 74°
±7°
Sat
Mostly clear
94° 74°
±9°
Sun
Drizzle
95° 74°
±10°
Mon
Drizzle
91° 74°
±15°
Tue
Mostly clear
87° 71°
±6°
Wed
Mostly clear
90° 65°
±8°
Thu
Clear
91° 65°
±9°

Waco, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 102°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 47 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Waco right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Waco climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
59°
41°
Feb
67°
47°
Mar
73°
54°
Apr
77°
59°
May
84°
68°
Jun
93°
75°
Jul
97°
78°
Aug
102°
80°
Sep
92°
74°
Oct
85°
64°
Nov
71°
52°
Dec
65°
47°

Which forecast is most accurate in Waco?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F97±1.0 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F96±1.3 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°94° to 97°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°95° to 97°±2%0% to 2% chance
Sun±2°97° to 100°±2%12% to 14% chance
Mon±5°96° to 101°±23%12% to 35% chance
Tue±4°94° to 98°±3%9% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waco

today, local time
Sunrise
07:14
Sunset
19:30
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waco today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Waco today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Waco today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Waco and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waco?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waco (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waco?
August is typically the warmest month in Waco, with average highs around 102°F.
How cold does Waco get?
The coldest month in Waco is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Waco get?
Waco sees roughly 47 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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