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Masterton weekend weather

This weekend in Masterton, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 16° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 100% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (71 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.

Today

2026-09-19 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Light drizzle
High 17°·Low ·Rain 74%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Cloudy
High 17°·Low ·Rain 10%
GermanDWD ICON
19°
Fog
High 19°·Low ·Rain 3%

All 3 models land within 2° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Tomorrow

2026-09-20 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Drizzle
High 13°·Low ·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Showers
High 13°·Low ·Rain 95%
GermanDWD ICON
14°
Light rain
High 14°·Low ·Rain 83%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°17° to 19°±71%3% to 74% chance
Tomorrow±1°13° to 14°±17%83% to 100% chance
Mon±4°15° to 19°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±4°13° to 17°±23%75% to 98% chance
Wed±1°9° to 10°±45%45% to 90% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 100%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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