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Otumoetai weekend weather

This weekend in Otumoetai, New Zealand, model by model. Weekend forecasts are far enough out that the models often split - so we show you where.

Weekend

The models centre on about 16° across the weekend. Agreement is low - the weekend is genuinely up in the air at this range. Rain chance reaches 48% on at least one model. The models agree closely on temperature but split badly on rain (43 points apart), so the rain call is the uncertain part.

Today

2026-09-19 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
17°
Cloudy
High 17°·Low ·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
High 18°·Low ·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Cloudy
High 16°·Low 11°·Rain 0%

All 3 models land within 2° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Tomorrow

2026-09-20 — every model, side by side
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Cloudy
High 15°·Low ·Rain 27%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light drizzle
High 16°·Low ·Rain 48%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Cloudy
High 15°·Low 10°·Rain 5%

All 3 models land within 1° of each other for this day — that is a forecast you can plan on.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°16° to 18°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tomorrow±1°15° to 16°±43%5% to 48% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±1°18° to 19°±44%5% to 49% chance
Wed±2°15° to 16°±39%20% to 59% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Common questions

Will it rain this weekend?
At least one model puts the weekend rain chance as high as 48%. Weekend forecasts sit far enough ahead that models frequently disagree on showers - when they do, no single app can honestly tell you it will or will not rain.
How reliable is a weekend forecast?
It depends how far away the weekend is. Forecast error grows steadily with lead time, so a Saturday forecast made on Friday is far stronger than one made the previous Monday. The honest signal is model agreement: when they converge the forecast is solid, and when they spread the weekend is genuinely uncertain.

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