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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°C

Picton weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Picton's high today between 16° and 20°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 15°, with a 18% chance of rain.

17°
15°
18°
13°
11°
15°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Cloudy
Today 16°·Low ·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low ·Rain 11%
GermanDWD ICON
17°
Fog
Today 17°·Low ·Rain 5%
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Picton weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Picton swings 16°C across the year, from 22°C highs in January to 6°C lows in July, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 912 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
22°C average high
Coldest month
July
6°C average low
Wettest month
April
912 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and October
Residents
4,930
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Picton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Picton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Picton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
17°
±4°
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
15°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
18°
±3°
Tue
Rain
13°
±6°
Wed
Drizzle
11°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
15°
models agree
Fri
Heavy drizzle
15°
±7°
Sat
Cloudy
17°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11°
±2°
Tue
Partly cloudy
17°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
21°
±9°
Thu
Partly cloudy
19°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
15°
±3°

Picton, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 6°C), with roughly 912 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Picton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Picton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
22°
14°
Feb
22°
14°
Mar
20°
12°
Apr
17°
11°
May
15°
Jun
13°
Jul
13°
Aug
13°
Sep
15°
Oct
16°
Nov
18°
11°
Dec
21°
13°

Which forecast is most accurate in Picton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
92±0.5°C93±3.6 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
91
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C92±4.2 km/t9597% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
87
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C80±10.0 km/t9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°16° to 20°±7%4% to 11% chance
Tomorrow±2°14° to 16°±10%8% to 18% chance
Mon±3°17° to 20°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±6°9° to 16°±40%46% to 86% chance
Wed±1°11° to 11°±50%30% to 80% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Picton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:19
Sunset
18:17
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Picton today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Picton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Picton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Picton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Picton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Picton (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the German at 91. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Picton?
January is typically the warmest month in Picton, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Picton get?
The coldest month in Picton is July, when overnight lows average about 6°C.
How much rain does Picton get?
Picton sees roughly 912 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

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