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Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 7°C

Wanaka weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Wanaka's high today between and 15°, a 7° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 11°, with a 100% chance of rain.

13°
11°
13°
11°
10°
13°
Todaysplit ±7°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Drizzle
Today 14°·Low ·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
Drizzle
Today ·Low ·Rain 100%
GermanDWD ICON
15°
Showers
Today 15°·Low ·Rain 88%
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Wanaka weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Wanaka swings 21°C across the year, from 23°C highs in January to 2°C lows in July, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1412 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
23°C average high
Coldest month
July
2°C average low
Wettest month
September
1412 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
13,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Wanaka and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Wanaka hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Wanaka 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
13°
±7°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
11°
models agree
Mon
Rain
13°
±4°
Tue
Light rain
11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
10°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
13°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
13°
±2°
Sat
Light rain
13°
models agree
Sun
Snow
models agree
Mon
Light snow
12°
±4°
Tue
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
15°
models agree
Thu
Clear
15°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
15°
models agree

Wanaka, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1412 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Wanaka right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Wanaka climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
23°
13°
Feb
21°
12°
Mar
18°
Apr
16°
May
12°
Jun
Jul
Aug
10°
Sep
12°
Oct
14°
Nov
18°
Dec
21°
12°

Which forecast is most accurate in Wanaka?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C97±1.5 km/t9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
85
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C91±4.5 km/t8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
51
/100rank #3
3±5.4°C92±3.8 km/t7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±7°9° to 15°±12%88% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°10° to 12°±70%30% to 100% chance
Mon±4°11° to 15°±15%85% to 100% chance
Tue±1°10° to 11°±24%76% to 100% chance
Wed±3°8° to 11°±10%22% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Wanaka

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
18:35
Daylight
11h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Wanaka today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Wanaka today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Wanaka today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Wanaka and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Wanaka?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Wanaka (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Wanaka?
January is typically the warmest month in Wanaka, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Wanaka get?
The coldest month in Wanaka is July, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Wanaka get?
Wanaka sees roughly 1412 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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