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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Ellesmere Port weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Ellesmere Port today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 16°, with a 7% chance of rain.

19°14°
16°11°
21°10°
21°13°
17°12°
19°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
17°
Overcast
Feels 16° · Wind 8 mph · Humidity 71%
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Light drizzle
Feels 14° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 75%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Overcast
Feels 13° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 67%

Latest for Ellesmere Port: Met Office (UKMO model): 17° Overcast · European (ECMWF): 16° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 16° Overcast.

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Ellesmere Port weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for North West England

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Ellesmere Port weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Ellesmere Port swings 16°C across the year, from 19°C highs in June to 3°C lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1219 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 9 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 24 frost nights, and rain on 173 days.

Warmest month
June
19°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
July
1219 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
65,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
87/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
9 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
24 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
173 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Ellesmere Port’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Ellesmere Port and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ellesmere Port hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ellesmere Port 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
21° 10°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
21° 13°
±3°
Wed
Light rain
17° 12°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
19°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
19° 10°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
21° 10°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
21° 11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
17° 12°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
17°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 11°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
17° 14°
models agree

Ellesmere Port, England is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1219 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Ellesmere Port right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Ellesmere Port climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
19°
11°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
19°
13°
Sep
18°
11°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Ellesmere Port?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C98±0.6 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
86
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C96±1.2 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C95±1.5 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 19°±42%55% to 97% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 17°±7%0% to 7% chance
Mon±3°20° to 23°±8%0% to 8% chance
Tue±3°19° to 22°±14%6% to 20% chance
Wed±3°16° to 18°±34%11% to 45% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ellesmere Port

today, local time
Sunrise
06:52
Sunset
19:17
Daylight
12h 25m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ellesmere Port today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Ellesmere Port today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ellesmere Port today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Ellesmere Port and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ellesmere Port?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ellesmere Port (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the Met Office at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ellesmere Port?
June is typically the warmest month in Ellesmere Port, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Ellesmere Port get?
The coldest month in Ellesmere Port is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Ellesmere Port get?
Ellesmere Port sees roughly 1219 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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