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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Bismarck weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 66° in Bismarck today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 67°, with a 7% chance of rain.

66°59°
67°57°
63°52°
67°51°
67°50°
73°56°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±10°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
68°
Cloudy
Today 68°·Low 58°·Rain 13%
AmericanNOAA GFS
64°
Cloudy
Today 64°·Low 58°·Rain 13%
EuropeanECMWF
67°
Light drizzle
Today 67°·Low 59°·Rain 52%
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Bismarck weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Bismarck weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Bismarck swings 72°F across the year, from 81°F highs in July to 9°F lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 21 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
81°F average high
Coldest month
January
9°F average low
Wettest month
June
21 in a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
May and September
Residents
75,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Bismarck and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Bismarck hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Bismarck 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
66° 59°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
67° 57°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
63° 52°
±10°
Mon
Cloudy
67° 51°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
67° 50°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
73° 56°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
76° 56°
±13°
Fri
Cloudy
73° 57°
±5°
Sat
Partly cloudy
69° 59°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
63° 50°
±7°
Mon
Drizzle
61° 46°
±9°
Tue
Cloudy
63° 45°
±8°
Wed
Cloudy
69° 45°
±12°
Thu
Cloudy
67° 51°
models agree

Bismarck, North Dakota (ND) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 81°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 9°F), with roughly 21 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Bismarck right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Bismarck climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
22°
Feb
33°
14°
Mar
31°
13°
Apr
50°
30°
May
69°
46°
Jun
77°
57°
Jul
81°
61°
Aug
79°
60°
Sep
76°
55°
Oct
58°
38°
Nov
40°
24°
Dec
33°
18°

Which forecast is most accurate in Bismarck?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
93±0.7°F96±1.3 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F94±1.9 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°64° to 68°±39%13% to 52% chance
Tomorrow±3°66° to 69°±3%4% to 7% chance
Sun±10°58° to 68°±6%20% to 26% chance
Mon±4°65° to 69°±7%10% to 17% chance
Tue±4°64° to 68°models agree2% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bismarck

today, local time
Sunrise
07:25
Sunset
19:48
Daylight
12h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bismarck today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Bismarck today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Bismarck today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Bismarck and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bismarck?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bismarck (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 73. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bismarck?
July is typically the warmest month in Bismarck, with average highs around 81°F.
How cold does Bismarck get?
The coldest month in Bismarck is January, when overnight lows average about 9°F.
How much rain does Bismarck get?
Bismarck sees roughly 21 in of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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