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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Broken Arrow weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 97° in Broken Arrow today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 96°, with a 1% chance of rain.

97°76°
96°76°
91°73°
83°69°
79°64°
81°61°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±16°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Clear
Today 96°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Mostly clear
Today 98°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
96°
Mostly clear
Today 96°·Low 77°·Rain 14%
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Broken Arrow weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Broken Arrow weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Broken Arrow swings 63°F across the year, from 93°F highs in August to 30°F lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 46 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
93°F average high
Coldest month
January
30°F average low
Wettest month
April
46 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
3 months
March, October and November
Residents
107,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Broken Arrow and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Broken Arrow hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Broken Arrow 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
97° 76°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
96° 76°
models agree
Sun
Showers
91° 73°
±16°
Mon
Light rain
83° 69°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
79° 64°
±6°
Wed
Mostly clear
81° 61°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
83° 62°
±9°
Fri
Light drizzle
80° 66°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
83° 64°
±7°
Sun
Light rain
85° 66°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
81° 65°
±18°
Tue
Clear
77° 59°
±11°
Wed
Partly cloudy
82° 58°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
87° 61°
models agree

Broken Arrow, Oklahoma (OK) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 93°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 30°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Broken Arrow right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Broken Arrow climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
47°
30°
Feb
58°
38°
Mar
64°
44°
Apr
72°
52°
May
80°
62°
Jun
90°
71°
Jul
92°
74°
Aug
93°
75°
Sep
86°
67°
Oct
76°
57°
Nov
63°
45°
Dec
53°
38°

Which forecast is most accurate in Broken Arrow?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
86±1.4°F97±1.1 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.6 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°96° to 98°±14%0% to 14% chance
Tomorrow±3°95° to 98°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±16°83° to 99°±7%56% to 63% chance
Mon±5°81° to 86°±33%30% to 63% chance
Tue±6°77° to 83°±7%0% to 7% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Broken Arrow

today, local time
Sunrise
07:08
Sunset
19:25
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Broken Arrow today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Broken Arrow today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Broken Arrow today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Broken Arrow and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Broken Arrow?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Broken Arrow (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Broken Arrow?
August is typically the warmest month in Broken Arrow, with average highs around 93°F.
How cold does Broken Arrow get?
The coldest month in Broken Arrow is January, when overnight lows average about 30°F.
How much rain does Broken Arrow get?
Broken Arrow sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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