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CheckWeather USCentreville
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Centreville weather

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Light rain,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Centreville's high today between 83° and 87°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 79°, with a 7% chance of rain.

84°71°
79°62°
84°68°
71°62°
64°59°
61°56°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
78°
Mainly clear
Feels 82° · Wind 4 mph · Humidity 65%
AmericanNOAA GFS
80°
Mainly clear
Feels 85° · Wind 1 mph · Humidity 54%
EuropeanECMWF
79°
Overcast
Feels 81° · Wind 3 mph · Humidity 54%

Latest for Centreville: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 78° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 80° Mainly clear · European (ECMWF): 79° Overcast.

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Centreville weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Centreville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Centreville swings 58°F across the year, from 90°F highs in July to 32°F lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 41 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
90°F average high
Coldest month
January
32°F average low
Wettest month
September
41 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
71,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Centreville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Centreville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Centreville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
84° 71°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
79° 62°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
84° 68°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
71° 62°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
64° 59°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
61° 56°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
64° 56°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
69° 55°
±6°
Sat
Light drizzle
70° 52°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
72° 52°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
74° 56°
models agree
Tue
Fog
76° 58°
±5°
Wed
Light rain
75° 61°
±9°
Thu
Clear
72° 53°
±7°

Centreville, Virginia (VA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 90°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 41 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Centreville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Centreville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
47°
32°
Feb
52°
33°
Mar
57°
37°
Apr
70°
48°
May
75°
54°
Jun
85°
62°
Jul
90°
69°
Aug
87°
66°
Sep
79°
61°
Oct
70°
49°
Nov
58°
40°
Dec
48°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Centreville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F97±0.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
61
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F95±1.5 mph548% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°83° to 87°±57%11% to 68% chance
Tomorrow±2°78° to 80°±5%2% to 7% chance
Sun±6°82° to 87°±14%49% to 63% chance
Mon±4°69° to 73°±7%49% to 56% chance
Tue±4°63° to 66°±1%53% to 54% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Centreville

today, local time
Sunrise
06:53
Sunset
19:13
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Centreville today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Centreville today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Centreville today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Centreville and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Centreville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Centreville (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the American at 61. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Centreville?
July is typically the warmest month in Centreville, with average highs around 90°F.
How cold does Centreville get?
The coldest month in Centreville is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Centreville get?
Centreville sees roughly 41 in of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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