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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°F

Elkhart weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 74° in Elkhart today. Tomorrow looks rain around 74°, with a 83% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

74°62°
74°61°
70°61°
64°55°
65°49°
61°53°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±10°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
74°
Light drizzle
Today 74°·Low 61°·Rain 6%
AmericanNOAA GFS
74°
Fog
Today 74°·Low 62°·Rain 6%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Light drizzle
Today 74°·Low 62°·Rain 72%
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Elkhart weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Elkhart weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Elkhart swings 58°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 24°F lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 40 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
January
24°F average low
Wettest month
July
40 in a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
52,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Elkhart and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Elkhart hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Elkhart 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
74° 62°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
74° 61°
±10°
Sun
Showers
70° 61°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
64° 55°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
65° 49°
±5°
Wed
Partly cloudy
61° 53°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
64° 55°
±5°
Fri
Partly cloudy
67° 55°
±5°
Sat
Mostly clear
70° 51°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
70° 50°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
68° 53°
±7°
Tue
Showers
60° 51°
±10°
Wed
Cloudy
58° 49°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
66° 51°
±5°

Elkhart, Indiana (IN) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 24°F), with roughly 40 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Elkhart right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Elkhart climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
35°
24°
Feb
45°
27°
Mar
49°
31°
Apr
60°
41°
May
73°
51°
Jun
81°
61°
Jul
82°
63°
Aug
81°
63°
Sep
77°
58°
Oct
64°
47°
Nov
50°
37°
Dec
41°
31°

Which forecast is most accurate in Elkhart?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F97±0.9 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
69
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F95±1.6 mph2961% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree74° to 74°±66%6% to 72% chance
Tomorrow±10°69° to 79°±23%60% to 83% chance
Sun±4°68° to 72°±11%83% to 94% chance
Mon±4°63° to 67°±2%33% to 35% chance
Tue±5°63° to 68°±23%8% to 31% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Elkhart

today, local time
Sunrise
07:27
Sunset
19:47
Daylight
12h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Elkhart today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Elkhart today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Elkhart today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Elkhart and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Elkhart?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Elkhart (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 69. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Elkhart?
July is typically the warmest month in Elkhart, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Elkhart get?
The coldest month in Elkhart is January, when overnight lows average about 24°F.
How much rain does Elkhart get?
Elkhart sees roughly 40 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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