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CheckWeather USEllicott City
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Ellicott City weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 83° in Ellicott City today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 77°, with a 7% chance of rain.

83°70°
77°60°
83°67°
72°61°
64°58°
63°55°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
82°
Light drizzle
Today 82°·Low 69°·Rain 8%
AmericanNOAA GFS
84°
Cloudy
Today 84°·Low 69°·Rain 8%
EuropeanECMWF
83°
Light rain
Today 83°·Low 71°·Rain 84%
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Ellicott City weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Ellicott City weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Ellicott City swings 56°F across the year, from 88°F highs in July to 32°F lows in January, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 46 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
32°F average low
Wettest month
August
46 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
66,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Ellicott City and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Ellicott City hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Ellicott City 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
83° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
77° 60°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
83° 67°
±5°
Mon
Drizzle
72° 61°
±5°
Tue
Drizzle
64° 58°
±4°
Wed
Light rain
63° 55°
models agree
Thu
Heavy drizzle
64° 56°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
70° 55°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
72° 54°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
73° 55°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
74° 58°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
78° 59°
models agree
Wed
Rain
74° 62°
±5°
Thu
Clear
71° 55°
±5°

Ellicott City, Maryland (MD) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 32°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Ellicott City right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Ellicott City climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
46°
32°
Feb
50°
32°
Mar
55°
37°
Apr
67°
47°
May
73°
53°
Jun
83°
62°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
84°
66°
Sep
77°
60°
Oct
68°
50°
Nov
56°
40°
Dec
47°
33°

Which forecast is most accurate in Ellicott City?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F95±1.4 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
64
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F95±1.4 mph2458% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°82° to 84°±76%8% to 84% chance
Tomorrow±1°77° to 78°±7%0% to 7% chance
Sun±5°81° to 86°±20%55% to 75% chance
Mon±5°70° to 75°±13%55% to 68% chance
Tue±4°62° to 66°±4%41% to 45% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Ellicott City

today, local time
Sunrise
06:51
Sunset
19:10
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Ellicott City today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Ellicott City today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Ellicott City today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Ellicott City and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Ellicott City?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Ellicott City (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 64. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Ellicott City?
July is typically the warmest month in Ellicott City, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Ellicott City get?
The coldest month in Ellicott City is January, when overnight lows average about 32°F.
How much rain does Ellicott City get?
Ellicott City sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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