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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Jamaica weather

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Cloudy,cooler tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 81° in Jamaica today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 72°, with a 2% chance of rain.

81°70°
72°61°
71°62°
69°60°
64°57°
65°56°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 70°·Rain 5%
AmericanNOAA GFS
82°
Cloudy
Today 82°·Low 69°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
81°
Cloudy
Today 81°·Low 70°·Rain 59%
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Jamaica weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Jamaica…

Jamaica weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Jamaica swings 52°F across the year, from 82°F highs in July to 30°F lows in February, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 52 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
82°F average high
Coldest month
February
30°F average low
Wettest month
March
52 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
February
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, September and October
Residents
217,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Jamaica and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Jamaica hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Jamaica 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
81° 70°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
72° 61°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
71° 62°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
69° 60°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
64° 57°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
65° 56°
models agree
Thu
Light rain
63° 56°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
63° 56°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
69° 57°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
71° 59°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
71° 60°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
76° 61°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
78° 64°
±4°
Thu
Rain
71° 57°
±8°

Jamaica, New York (NY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 30°F), with roughly 52 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Jamaica right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Jamaica climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
44°
32°
Feb
45°
30°
Mar
51°
35°
Apr
59°
44°
May
68°
52°
Jun
77°
62°
Jul
82°
69°
Aug
80°
67°
Sep
75°
61°
Oct
67°
51°
Nov
55°
40°
Dec
45°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Jamaica?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F95±1.6 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
84±1.6°F94±1.9 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°81° to 82°±54%5% to 59% chance
Tomorrow±2°70° to 73°±1%1% to 2% chance
Sun±4°69° to 73°±13%79% to 92% chance
Mon±3°68° to 70°±1%77% to 78% chance
Tue±1°64° to 64°±21%6% to 27% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Jamaica

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
18:59
Daylight
12h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Jamaica today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Jamaica today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Jamaica today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Jamaica and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Jamaica?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Jamaica (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Jamaica?
July is typically the warmest month in Jamaica, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Jamaica get?
The coldest month in Jamaica is February, when overnight lows average about 30°F.
How much rain does Jamaica get?
Jamaica sees roughly 52 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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