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CheckWeather USJefferson City
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Jefferson City weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Jefferson City's high today between 92° and 97°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 96°, with a 3% chance of rain.

95°72°
96°75°
91°72°
76°65°
69°61°
75°56°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±7°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±8°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
97°
Light drizzle
Today 97°·Low 72°·Rain 7%
AmericanNOAA GFS
97°
Clear
Today 97°·Low 73°·Rain 7%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Light drizzle
Today 92°·Low 71°·Rain 41%
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Jefferson City weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Jefferson City weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Jefferson City swings 62°F across the year, from 88°F highs in June to 26°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 36 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
June
88°F average high
Coldest month
January
26°F average low
Wettest month
March
36 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
43,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Jefferson City and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Jefferson City hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Jefferson City 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
95° 72°
±5°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
96° 75°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
91° 72°
±7°
Mon
Light rain
76° 65°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
69° 61°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
75° 56°
±8°
Thu
Cloudy
76° 56°
±7°
Fri
Partly cloudy
71° 59°
±11°
Sat
Cloudy
77° 60°
±11°
Sun
Light drizzle
81° 59°
±13°
Mon
Light drizzle
75° 57°
±11°
Tue
Cloudy
71° 52°
±7°
Wed
Cloudy
75° 50°
±10°
Thu
Cloudy
86° 56°
models agree

Jefferson City, Missouri (MO) is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 88°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 26°F), with roughly 36 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Jefferson City right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Jefferson City climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
42°
26°
Feb
55°
33°
Mar
58°
38°
Apr
69°
47°
May
79°
58°
Jun
88°
66°
Jul
88°
69°
Aug
88°
69°
Sep
83°
62°
Oct
73°
51°
Nov
58°
40°
Dec
49°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Jefferson City?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #2
83±1.7°F95±1.4 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°92° to 97°±34%7% to 41% chance
Tomorrow±3°95° to 98°±2%1% to 3% chance
Sun±7°88° to 96°±4%56% to 60% chance
Mon±4°74° to 79°models agree62% to 62% chance
Tue±1°69° to 70°±2%26% to 28% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Jefferson City

today, local time
Sunrise
06:52
Sunset
19:11
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Jefferson City today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Jefferson City today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Jefferson City today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Jefferson City and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Jefferson City?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Jefferson City (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Jefferson City?
June is typically the warmest month in Jefferson City, with average highs around 88°F.
How cold does Jefferson City get?
The coldest month in Jefferson City is January, when overnight lows average about 26°F.
How much rain does Jefferson City get?
Jefferson City sees roughly 36 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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