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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Lake Forest weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 79° in Lake Forest today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 81°, with a 1% chance of rain.

79°62°
81°62°
81°64°
78°64°
80°64°
85°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±7°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±5°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
78°
Partly cloudy
Today 78°·Low 63°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 62°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
80°
Cloudy
Today 80°·Low 62°·Rain 0%
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Lake Forest weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Lake Forest…

Lake Forest weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Lake Forest swings 40°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 45°F lows in February, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 27 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
February
45°F average low
Wettest month
February
27 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
82,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lake Forest and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lake Forest hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lake Forest 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
79° 62°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
81° 62°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
81° 64°
±7°
Mon
Partly cloudy
78° 64°
±4°
Tue
Partly cloudy
80° 64°
±5°
Wed
Mostly clear
85° 66°
models agree
Thu
Clear
85° 67°
±6°
Fri
Mostly clear
86° 69°
±15°
Sat
Partly cloudy
88° 69°
±18°
Sun
Cloudy
91° 73°
±17°
Mon
Mostly clear
91° 75°
±18°
Tue
Cloudy
93° 77°
models agree
Wed
Clear
83° 67°
models agree
Thu
Clear
79° 65°
models agree

Lake Forest, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 45°F), with roughly 27 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lake Forest right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lake Forest climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
46°
Feb
61°
45°
Mar
61°
46°
Apr
68°
50°
May
69°
53°
Jun
75°
57°
Jul
85°
63°
Aug
85°
64°
Sep
82°
62°
Oct
81°
60°
Nov
72°
52°
Dec
68°
50°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lake Forest?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
76±2.4°F98±0.6 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
64±3.6°F97±1.1 mph100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°78° to 80°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±3°80° to 83°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±7°77° to 84°±1%1% to 2% chance
Mon±4°75° to 79°±4%2% to 6% chance
Tue±5°77° to 82°±2%0% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lake Forest

today, local time
Sunrise
06:36
Sunset
18:52
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lake Forest today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lake Forest today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lake Forest today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lake Forest and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lake Forest?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lake Forest (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lake Forest?
July is typically the warmest month in Lake Forest, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Lake Forest get?
The coldest month in Lake Forest is February, when overnight lows average about 45°F.
How much rain does Lake Forest get?
Lake Forest sees roughly 27 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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