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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Lancaster weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 85° in Lancaster today. Tomorrow looks clear around 89°, with a 0% chance of rain.

85°58°
89°56°
89°60°
83°64°
88°61°
93°68°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±5°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
84°
Clear
Today 84°·Low 59°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
84°
Clear
Today 84°·Low 57°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
86°
Clear
Today 86°·Low 58°·Rain 0%
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Lancaster weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Lancaster…

Lancaster weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Lancaster swings 64°F across the year, from 101°F highs in July to 37°F lows in January, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 12 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
101°F average high
Coldest month
January
37°F average low
Wettest month
February
12 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
April, November and December
Residents
161,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lancaster and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lancaster hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lancaster 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
85° 58°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
89° 56°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
89° 60°
±5°
Mon
Mostly clear
83° 64°
models agree
Tue
Clear
88° 61°
models agree
Wed
Clear
93° 68°
models agree
Thu
Clear
93° 69°
±4°
Fri
Clear
89° 68°
±4°
Sat
Mostly clear
88° 66°
±13°
Sun
Cloudy
89° 68°
±11°
Mon
Clear
91° 69°
±17°
Tue
Partly cloudy
95° 72°
models agree
Wed
Clear
84° 64°
±16°
Thu
Clear
84° 59°
±17°

Lancaster, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 101°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 37°F), with roughly 12 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lancaster right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lancaster climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
56°
37°
Feb
56°
37°
Mar
59°
41°
Apr
73°
47°
May
79°
53°
Jun
87°
61°
Jul
101°
71°
Aug
95°
66°
Sep
89°
61°
Oct
82°
56°
Nov
64°
42°
Dec
62°
39°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lancaster?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±1.1 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F96±1.2 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°84° to 86°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°87° to 90°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±5°86° to 91°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±2°81° to 83°models agree2% to 2% chance
Tue±2°87° to 89°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lancaster

today, local time
Sunrise
06:37
Sunset
18:54
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lancaster today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lancaster today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lancaster today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lancaster and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lancaster?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lancaster (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lancaster?
July is typically the warmest month in Lancaster, with average highs around 101°F.
How cold does Lancaster get?
The coldest month in Lancaster is January, when overnight lows average about 37°F.
How much rain does Lancaster get?
Lancaster sees roughly 12 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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