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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 3°F

Palmdale weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 83° in Palmdale today. Tomorrow looks clear around 87°, with a 0% chance of rain.

83°57°
87°60°
87°65°
81°63°
86°63°
91°70°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaysplit ±6°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
81°
Clear
Today 81°·Low 58°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
83°
Clear
Today 83°·Low 56°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
84°
Clear
Today 84°·Low 59°·Rain 0%
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Palmdale weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Palmdale…

Palmdale weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Palmdale swings 60°F across the year, from 98°F highs in July to 38°F lows in February, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 16 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
98°F average high
Coldest month
February
38°F average low
Wettest month
February
16 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, November and December
Residents
158,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Palmdale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Palmdale hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Palmdale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
83° 57°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
87° 60°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
87° 65°
±6°
Mon
Mostly clear
81° 63°
±4°
Tue
Clear
86° 63°
models agree
Wed
Clear
91° 70°
models agree
Thu
Clear
91° 71°
models agree
Fri
Clear
89° 70°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
87° 68°
±11°
Sun
Light drizzle
88° 69°
±12°
Mon
Clear
89° 71°
±17°
Tue
Clear
93° 75°
models agree
Wed
Clear
84° 67°
±13°
Thu
Clear
82° 64°
±17°

Palmdale, California (CA) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 98°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 38°F), with roughly 16 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Palmdale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Palmdale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
54°
39°
Feb
54°
38°
Mar
56°
41°
Apr
70°
48°
May
76°
53°
Jun
84°
60°
Jul
98°
72°
Aug
92°
67°
Sep
87°
63°
Oct
80°
58°
Nov
63°
44°
Dec
61°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Palmdale?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
80±2.0°F97±1.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
91±0.9°F88±3.8 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°81° to 84°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±3°85° to 88°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±6°84° to 90°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±4°78° to 83°models agree2% to 2% chance
Tue±1°85° to 86°±1%0% to 1% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Palmdale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:37
Sunset
18:54
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Palmdale today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Palmdale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Palmdale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Palmdale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Palmdale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Palmdale (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Palmdale?
July is typically the warmest month in Palmdale, with average highs around 98°F.
How cold does Palmdale get?
The coldest month in Palmdale is February, when overnight lows average about 38°F.
How much rain does Palmdale get?
Palmdale sees roughly 16 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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