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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Las Cruces weather

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Drizzle,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 87° in Las Cruces today. Tomorrow looks partly cloudy around 90°, with a 10% chance of rain.

87°67°
90°65°
90°65°
91°67°
87°70°
77°66°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±8°Wednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
87°
Drizzle
Today 87°·Low 69°·Rain 56%
AmericanNOAA GFS
88°
Cloudy
Today 88°·Low 65°·Rain 56%
EuropeanECMWF
86°
Drizzle
Today 86°·Low 66°·Rain 88%
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Las Cruces weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Las Cruces weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Las Cruces swings 66°F across the year, from 100°F highs in July to 34°F lows in January, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 5 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
100°F average high
Coldest month
January
34°F average low
Wettest month
February
5 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
March, April, November and December
Residents
102,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Las Cruces and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Las Cruces hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Las Cruces 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
87° 67°
models agree
Tomorrow
Partly cloudy
90° 65°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
90° 65°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
91° 67°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
87° 70°
±8°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
77° 66°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
78° 66°
±6°
Fri
Drizzle
78° 67°
±21°
Sat
Light drizzle
83° 67°
±13°
Sun
Partly cloudy
85° 67°
±11°
Mon
Light drizzle
84° 68°
±5°
Tue
Partly cloudy
84° 67°
±7°
Wed
Clear
85° 68°
±13°
Thu
Clear
85° 68°
±13°

Las Cruces, New Mexico (NM) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 100°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 34°F), with roughly 5 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Las Cruces right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Las Cruces climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
57°
34°
Feb
61°
37°
Mar
68°
42°
Apr
78°
50°
May
88°
59°
Jun
98°
69°
Jul
100°
74°
Aug
97°
72°
Sep
92°
65°
Oct
83°
56°
Nov
66°
42°
Dec
61°
36°

Which forecast is most accurate in Las Cruces?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F94±1.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
81±1.9°F92±2.4 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°86° to 88°±32%56% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±4°88° to 92°±8%2% to 10% chance
Sun±1°90° to 91°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±1°91° to 92°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tue±8°82° to 90°±13%72% to 85% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Las Cruces

today, local time
Sunrise
06:52
Sunset
19:08
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Las Cruces today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Las Cruces today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Las Cruces today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Las Cruces and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Las Cruces?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Las Cruces (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Las Cruces?
July is typically the warmest month in Las Cruces, with average highs around 100°F.
How cold does Las Cruces get?
The coldest month in Las Cruces is January, when overnight lows average about 34°F.
How much rain does Las Cruces get?
Las Cruces sees roughly 5 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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