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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Lexington weather

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Showers,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 88° in Lexington today. Tomorrow looks showers around 89°, with a 73% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

88°73°
89°71°
90°71°
83°67°
75°63°
74°61°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±9°Sundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
89°
Showers
Today 89°·Low 73°·Rain 26%
AmericanNOAA GFS
86°
Cloudy
Today 86°·Low 72°·Rain 26%
EuropeanECMWF
88°
Thunderstorm
Today 88°·Low 73°·Rain 94%
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Lexington weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Lexington…

Lexington weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Lexington swings 57°F across the year, from 87°F highs in July to 30°F lows in January, and January is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 42 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
87°F average high
Coldest month
January
30°F average low
Wettest month
January
42 in a year
Below freezing
1 month
January
Comfortable
3 months
April, May and October
Residents
320,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Lexington and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Lexington hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Lexington 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Showers
88° 73°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
89° 71°
±9°
Sun
Light drizzle
90° 71°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
83° 67°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
75° 63°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
74° 61°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
73° 59°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
72° 59°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
73° 56°
±5°
Sun
Mostly clear
75° 55°
±9°
Mon
Cloudy
76° 57°
±10°
Tue
Rain
73° 54°
±11°
Wed
Light drizzle
68° 50°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
70° 48°
±7°

Lexington, Kentucky (KY) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 87°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 30°F), with roughly 42 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Lexington right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Lexington climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
45°
30°
Feb
55°
34°
Mar
57°
37°
Apr
67°
46°
May
75°
56°
Jun
83°
62°
Jul
87°
67°
Aug
85°
65°
Sep
81°
61°
Oct
70°
50°
Nov
57°
41°
Dec
48°
34°

Which forecast is most accurate in Lexington?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F97±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
91±0.9°F95±1.5 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°86° to 89°±68%26% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±9°86° to 94°±54%19% to 73% chance
Sun±2°88° to 90°±38%11% to 49% chance
Mon±3°82° to 85°±15%44% to 59% chance
Tue±3°74° to 77°±11%41% to 52% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Lexington

today, local time
Sunrise
07:22
Sunset
19:40
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Lexington today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Lexington today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Lexington today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Lexington and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Lexington?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Lexington (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Lexington?
July is typically the warmest month in Lexington, with average highs around 87°F.
How cold does Lexington get?
The coldest month in Lexington is January, when overnight lows average about 30°F.
How much rain does Lexington get?
Lexington sees roughly 42 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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