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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Manhattan weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 93° in Manhattan today. Tomorrow looks showers around 94°, with a 86% chance of rain.

93°74°
94°73°
74°67°
70°63°
71°58°
70°54°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaysplit ±6°Tuesdaysplit ±10°Wednesdaysplit ±6°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
93°
Partly cloudy
Today 93°·Low 75°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
94°
Cloudy
Today 94°·Low 71°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Cloudy
Today 92°·Low 75°·Rain 4%
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Manhattan weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Manhattan…

Manhattan weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Manhattan swings 70°F across the year, from 91°F highs in July to 21°F lows in January, and April is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 30 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
91°F average high
Coldest month
January
21°F average low
Wettest month
April
30 in a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and December
Comfortable
2 months
May and October
Residents
56,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Manhattan and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Manhattan hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Manhattan 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
93° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Showers
94° 73°
models agree
Sun
Heavy drizzle
74° 67°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
70° 63°
±6°
Tue
Cloudy
71° 58°
±10°
Wed
Cloudy
70° 54°
±6°
Thu
Drizzle
69° 59°
±9°
Fri
Heavy drizzle
71° 61°
±7°
Sat
Drizzle
76° 60°
±11°
Sun
Drizzle
80° 64°
±15°
Mon
Drizzle
72° 59°
±11°
Tue
Cloudy
73° 54°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
76° 54°
±7°
Thu
Cloudy
85° 63°
models agree

Manhattan, Kansas (KS) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 91°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 21°F), with roughly 30 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Manhattan right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Manhattan climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
37°
21°
Feb
52°
29°
Mar
56°
36°
Apr
70°
47°
May
78°
57°
Jun
88°
68°
Jul
91°
71°
Aug
90°
71°
Sep
85°
63°
Oct
73°
52°
Nov
55°
39°
Dec
46°
30°

Which forecast is most accurate in Manhattan?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
95
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F95±1.4 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
76
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F88±3.8 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°92° to 94°±3%1% to 4% chance
Tomorrow±4°93° to 96°±49%37% to 86% chance
Sun±3°73° to 76°±51%40% to 91% chance
Mon±6°68° to 74°±15%24% to 39% chance
Tue±10°66° to 76°±3%1% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Manhattan

today, local time
Sunrise
07:10
Sunset
19:29
Daylight
12h 19m

Common questions

What's the weather in Manhattan today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Manhattan today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Manhattan today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Manhattan and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Manhattan?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Manhattan (CheckWeather Score 95/100), ahead of the American at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Manhattan?
July is typically the warmest month in Manhattan, with average highs around 91°F.
How cold does Manhattan get?
The coldest month in Manhattan is January, when overnight lows average about 21°F.
How much rain does Manhattan get?
Manhattan sees roughly 30 in of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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