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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

McKinney weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 96° in McKinney today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 96°, with a 0% chance of rain.

96°78°
96°75°
98°77°
95°74°
92°71°
92°71°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±5°Tuesdaysplit ±10°Wednesdaysplit ±9°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Clear
Today 98°·Low 78°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
96°
Mostly clear
Today 96°·Low 77°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Mostly clear
Today 94°·Low 78°·Rain 0%
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McKinney weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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McKinney weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

McKinney swings 62°F across the year, from 99°F highs in August to 37°F lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 55 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
99°F average high
Coldest month
January
37°F average low
Wettest month
October
55 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and November
Residents
163,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around McKinney and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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McKinney hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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McKinney 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
96° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
96° 75°
±4°
Sun
Light drizzle
98° 77°
±5°
Mon
Showers
95° 74°
±5°
Tue
Mostly clear
92° 71°
±10°
Wed
Mostly clear
92° 71°
±9°
Thu
Cloudy
92° 71°
±9°
Fri
Cloudy
91° 71°
±6°
Sat
Mostly clear
91° 71°
±10°
Sun
Mostly clear
94° 71°
±10°
Mon
Drizzle
89° 71°
±18°
Tue
Mostly clear
84° 64°
±11°
Wed
Partly cloudy
86° 61°
±5°
Thu
Clear
87° 62°
±7°

McKinney, Texas (TX) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 99°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 37°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for McKinney right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

McKinney climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
54°
37°
Feb
62°
44°
Mar
68°
50°
Apr
74°
56°
May
82°
66°
Jun
90°
73°
Jul
94°
76°
Aug
99°
79°
Sep
90°
71°
Oct
81°
62°
Nov
67°
49°
Dec
59°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in McKinney?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
85±1.5°F96±1.4 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F95±1.5 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°94° to 98°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°94° to 98°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±5°95° to 100°±15%22% to 37% chance
Mon±5°93° to 98°±14%30% to 44% chance
Tue±10°87° to 97°±4%4% to 8% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in McKinney

today, local time
Sunrise
07:12
Sunset
19:28
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in McKinney today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for McKinney today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in McKinney today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for McKinney and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for McKinney?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for McKinney (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in McKinney?
August is typically the warmest month in McKinney, with average highs around 99°F.
How cold does McKinney get?
The coldest month in McKinney is January, when overnight lows average about 37°F.
How much rain does McKinney get?
McKinney sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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