CheckWeather US›Prior Lake
Prior Lake weather
Loading live data…The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Prior Lake and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Loading the three model maps…
Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models7-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they splitPrior Lake, MN is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 82°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 13°F), with roughly 38 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Prior Lake right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
Prior Lake climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical yearJan
26°
13°
Feb
36°
16°
Mar
41°
23°
Apr
55°
37°
May
72°
51°
Jun
80°
61°
Jul
82°
63°
Aug
80°
63°
Sep
78°
60°
Oct
62°
46°
Nov
45°
31°
Dec
35°
23°
Which forecast is most accurate in the US?
CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 40 cities. Lower error means a higher score. The apps you know (AccuWeather, Apple Weather, The Weather Channel) are built on these models.
Common questions
What's the weather in Prior Lake today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Prior Lake today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Prior Lake today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Prior Lake and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Prior Lake?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Prior Lake forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Prior Lake?
Jul is typically the warmest month in Prior Lake, with average highs around 82°F.
How cold does Prior Lake get?
The coldest month in Prior Lake is Jan, when overnight lows average about 13°F.
How much rain does Prior Lake get?
Prior Lake sees roughly 38 in of precipitation a year, with Jun usually the wettest month.
The forecasts Americans check
The two biggest apps keep their model a secret, so we can't show their numbers, only link you to them. The National Weather Service is public, so its data sits right in the comparison above.