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CheckWeather USRio Rancho
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Rio Rancho weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Rio Rancho's high today between 74° and 79°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 78°, with a 65% chance of rain, and the models disagree, so treat it as uncertain.

76°61°
78°58°
80°57°
80°60°
77°61°
69°59°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±10°Sundaysplit ±5°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±11°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
75°
Rain
Today 75°·Low 62°·Rain 56%
AmericanNOAA GFS
79°
Light rain
Today 79°·Low 60°·Rain 56%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Drizzle
Today 74°·Low 61°·Rain 88%
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Rio Rancho weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Rio Rancho weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Rio Rancho swings 70°F across the year, from 96°F highs in July to 26°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 10 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
96°F average high
Coldest month
January
26°F average low
Wettest month
March
10 in a year
Below freezing
3 months
January, February and December
Comfortable
2 months
April and October
Residents
88,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Rio Rancho and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Rio Rancho hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Rio Rancho 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
76° 61°
±5°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
78° 58°
±10°
Sun
Mostly clear
80° 57°
±5°
Mon
Cloudy
80° 60°
±4°
Tue
Drizzle
77° 61°
±11°
Wed
Drizzle
69° 59°
±5°
Thu
Drizzle
70° 60°
±11°
Fri
Drizzle
72° 62°
±19°
Sat
Light drizzle
77° 63°
±11°
Sun
Mostly clear
79° 62°
±12°
Mon
Light drizzle
77° 61°
±6°
Tue
Clear
79° 61°
±12°
Wed
Clear
78° 63°
±10°
Thu
Clear
80° 64°
±13°

Rio Rancho, New Mexico (NM) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 96°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 26°F), with roughly 10 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Rio Rancho right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Rio Rancho climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
43°
26°
Feb
50°
29°
Mar
57°
35°
Apr
70°
43°
May
79°
53°
Jun
90°
63°
Jul
96°
70°
Aug
92°
68°
Sep
85°
60°
Oct
75°
50°
Nov
55°
34°
Dec
48°
29°

Which forecast is most accurate in Rio Rancho?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
85
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F93±2.2 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
78±2.2°F89±3.6 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°74° to 79°±32%56% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±10°74° to 84°±50%15% to 65% chance
Sun±5°78° to 83°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±4°79° to 83°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±11°73° to 84°±7%68% to 75% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Rio Rancho

today, local time
Sunrise
06:51
Sunset
19:09
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Rio Rancho today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Rio Rancho today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Rio Rancho today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Rio Rancho and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Rio Rancho?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Rio Rancho (CheckWeather Score 85/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Rio Rancho?
July is typically the warmest month in Rio Rancho, with average highs around 96°F.
How cold does Rio Rancho get?
The coldest month in Rio Rancho is January, when overnight lows average about 26°F.
How much rain does Rio Rancho get?
Rio Rancho sees roughly 10 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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