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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 6°F

Tucson weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Tucson's high today between 92° and 97°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks clear around 96°, with a 1% chance of rain.

95°71°
96°70°
95°70°
96°76°
94°76°
92°77°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Clear
Today 96°·Low 72°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
97°
Clear
Today 97°·Low 71°·Rain 2%
EuropeanECMWF
92°
Clear
Today 92°·Low 71°·Rain 0%
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Tucson weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Tucson weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Tucson swings 66°F across the year, from 105°F highs in July to 39°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 14 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
105°F average high
Coldest month
January
39°F average low
Wettest month
March
14 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, November and December
Residents
543,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Tucson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Tucson in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour

Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Tucson, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗

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Tucson hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Tucson 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
95° 71°
±6°
Tomorrow
Clear
96° 70°
models agree
Sun
Clear
95° 70°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
96° 76°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
94° 76°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
92° 77°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
92° 76°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
93° 78°
±8°
Sat
Mostly clear
96° 79°
±8°
Sun
Light drizzle
97° 80°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
97° 80°
±10°
Tue
Clear
101° 82°
models agree
Wed
Clear
98° 83°
±4°
Thu
Clear
96° 79°
models agree

Tucson, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 105°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 39°F), with roughly 14 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Tucson right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Tucson climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
39°
Feb
66°
42°
Mar
70°
46°
Apr
83°
54°
May
92°
64°
Jun
101°
73°
Jul
105°
80°
Aug
100°
77°
Sep
98°
73°
Oct
91°
63°
Nov
74°
49°
Dec
71°
44°

Which forecast is most accurate in Tucson?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F96±1.4 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F85±4.6 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°92° to 97°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±3°95° to 97°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±2°94° to 96°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±3°94° to 97°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±6°92° to 98°±7%13% to 20% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Tucson

today, local time
Sunrise
06:09
Sunset
18:25
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Tucson today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Tucson today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Tucson today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Tucson and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Tucson?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Tucson (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Tucson?
July is typically the warmest month in Tucson, with average highs around 105°F.
How cold does Tucson get?
The coldest month in Tucson is January, when overnight lows average about 39°F.
How much rain does Tucson get?
Tucson sees roughly 14 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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