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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 4°F

Wilmington weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in Wilmington today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 78°, with a 0% chance of rain.

76°65°
78°65°
77°66°
75°68°
76°67°
80°69°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaysplit ±5°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
78°
Mostly clear
Today 78°·Low 66°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
78°
Cloudy
Today 78°·Low 62°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
74°
Partly cloudy
Today 74°·Low 68°·Rain 0%
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Wilmington weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Wilmington weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Wilmington swings 34°F across the year, from 80°F highs in August to 46°F lows in January, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 24 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
80°F average high
Coldest month
January
46°F average low
Wettest month
February
24 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and May
Residents
52,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Wilmington and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Wilmington hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Wilmington 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
76° 65°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
78° 65°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
77° 66°
±5°
Mon
Partly cloudy
75° 68°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
76° 67°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
80° 69°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
80° 69°
±6°
Fri
Mostly clear
81° 70°
±12°
Sat
Partly cloudy
82° 71°
±16°
Sun
Cloudy
86° 73°
±15°
Mon
Mostly clear
85° 72°
±13°
Tue
Cloudy
85° 74°
±11°
Wed
Clear
78° 69°
models agree
Thu
Clear
74° 68°
models agree

Wilmington, California (CA) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 80°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 46°F), with roughly 24 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Wilmington right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Wilmington climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
46°
Feb
61°
46°
Mar
61°
49°
Apr
66°
51°
May
67°
56°
Jun
72°
59°
Jul
79°
62°
Aug
80°
63°
Sep
78°
62°
Oct
77°
57°
Nov
70°
51°
Dec
66°
50°

Which forecast is most accurate in the US?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
88±1.2°F96±1.2 mph8491% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F93±2.3 mph4972% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°74° to 78°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±4°76° to 80°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±5°74° to 80°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±1°74° to 75°models agree2% to 2% chance
Tue±3°75° to 78°±4%2% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Wilmington

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
18:55
Daylight
12h 17m

Common questions

What's the weather in Wilmington today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Wilmington today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Wilmington today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Wilmington and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Wilmington?
No single model is always right. NWS, American, European each run their own physics, so we line all three up: when they agree the Wilmington forecast is reliable, and when they split you should expect surprises. See our tested US accuracy scoreboard for how the models compare.
What is the warmest month in Wilmington?
August is typically the warmest month in Wilmington, with average highs around 80°F.
How cold does Wilmington get?
The coldest month in Wilmington is January, when overnight lows average about 46°F.
How much rain does Wilmington get?
Wilmington sees roughly 24 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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