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CheckWeather NZKaikoura
Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 6°C

Kaikoura weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Kaikoura's high today between 16° and 22°, a 6° split. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 14°, with a 90% chance of rain.

19°
14°
17°
15°
10°
14°
Todaysplit ±6°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±7°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
Clear
Feels 4° · Wind 12 km/h · Humidity 79%
AmericanNOAA GFS
Overcast
Feels 5° · Wind 14 km/h · Humidity 62%
GermanDWD ICON
Mainly clear
Feels 6° · Wind 13 km/h · Humidity 56%

Latest for Kaikoura: European (ECMWF): 7° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 8° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 9° Mainly clear.

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Kaikoura weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Kaikoura swings 16°C across the year, from 21°C highs in January to 5°C lows in July, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1468 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
21°C average high
Coldest month
July
5°C average low
Wettest month
February
1468 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, March, April and October
Residents
685
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Kaikoura and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kaikoura hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kaikoura 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19°
±6°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
14°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
17°
±7°
Tue
Light rain
15°
±3°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
10°
±3°
Thu
Partly cloudy
14°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
13°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
11°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
15°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 10°
±11°
Thu
Mostly clear
17°
±7°
Fri
Cloudy
14°
±6°

Kaikoura, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 5°C), with roughly 1468 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Kaikoura right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Kaikoura climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
21°
14°
Feb
21°
14°
Mar
19°
11°
Apr
17°
10°
May
14°
Jun
13°
Jul
12°
Aug
12°
Sep
15°
Oct
16°
Nov
17°
10°
Dec
20°
13°

Which forecast is most accurate in Kaikoura?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C94±3.2 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
87
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C93±3.5 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
78
/100rank #3
66±1.9°C90±5.0 km/t8290% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±6°16° to 22°±37%3% to 40% chance
Tomorrow±2°14° to 15°±20%70% to 90% chance
Mon±7°14° to 21°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°14° to 17°±7%90% to 97% chance
Wed±3°9° to 11°±28%52% to 80% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kaikoura

today, local time
Sunrise
06:21
Sunset
18:19
Daylight
11h 58m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kaikoura today?
On this page we show what European, American, German each forecast for Kaikoura today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Kaikoura today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from European, American, German for Kaikoura and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kaikoura?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kaikoura (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kaikoura?
January is typically the warmest month in Kaikoura, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Kaikoura get?
The coldest month in Kaikoura is July, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Kaikoura get?
Kaikoura sees roughly 1468 mm of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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