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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Minehead weather

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Heavy drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Minehead today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 17°, with a 35% chance of rain.

19°15°
17°12°
20°10°
22°11°
19°11°
20°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±3°Tuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±6°
Met OfficeUKMO model
20°
Heavy drizzle
Today 20°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Drizzle
Today 18°·Low 15°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 42%
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Minehead weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for South West England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for South West England…

Minehead weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Minehead swings 16°C across the year, from 20°C highs in August to 4°C lows in January, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1243 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 5 days a year at 25°C or above, 5 frost nights, and rain on 173 days.

Warmest month
August
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
4°C average low
Wettest month
September
1243 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
12,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Met Office
82/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
5 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
5 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
173 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Minehead’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Minehead and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Minehead hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Minehead 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
19° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 12°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
20° 10°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 11°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
19° 11°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
20° 10°
±6°
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 13°
±7°
Sat
Light drizzle
19° 13°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
19° 13°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
22° 12°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
21° 12°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
21° 11°
±8°
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
16° 13°
±6°

Minehead, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1243 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Minehead right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Minehead climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
11°
Apr
12°
May
16°
10°
Jun
19°
13°
Jul
19°
14°
Aug
20°
15°
Sep
19°
13°
Oct
16°
11°
Nov
12°
Dec
11°

Which forecast is most accurate in Minehead?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
82
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C93±2.2 mph6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European logo
European
81
/100rank #2
81±1.0°C96±1.3 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
72
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C93±2.1 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1887 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 20°±58%42% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±8%27% to 35% chance
Mon±3°18° to 21°±14%0% to 14% chance
Tue±3°20° to 24°±4%0% to 4% chance
Wed±4°17° to 21°±10%0% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Minehead

today, local time
Sunrise
06:55
Sunset
19:19
Daylight
12h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Minehead today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Minehead today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Minehead today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Minehead and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Minehead?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Minehead (CheckWeather Score 82/100), ahead of the European at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Minehead?
August is typically the warmest month in Minehead, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Minehead get?
The coldest month in Minehead is January, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Minehead get?
Minehead sees roughly 1243 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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