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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Conway weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 98° in Conway today. Tomorrow looks clear around 98°, with a 0% chance of rain.

98°74°
98°74°
98°73°
92°74°
88°71°
85°65°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±7°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Clear
Today 99°·Low 74°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
97°
Clear
Today 97°·Low 73°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
97°
Clear
Today 97°·Low 76°·Rain 0%
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Conway weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Conway weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Conway swings 59°F across the year, from 92°F highs in August to 33°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 54 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
August
92°F average high
Coldest month
January
33°F average low
Wettest month
May
54 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
February, March, April and October
Residents
65,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Conway and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Conway hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Conway 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
98° 74°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
98° 74°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
98° 73°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
92° 74°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
88° 71°
±4°
Wed
Mostly clear
85° 65°
±7°
Thu
Mostly clear
84° 63°
±4°
Fri
Partly cloudy
84° 63°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
83° 63°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
87° 64°
±10°
Mon
Light drizzle
80° 64°
±14°
Tue
Cloudy
81° 58°
±16°
Wed
Mostly clear
80° 56°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
84° 57°
models agree

Conway, Arkansas (AR) is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 92°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 33°F), with roughly 54 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Conway right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Conway climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
50°
33°
Feb
60°
41°
Mar
65°
45°
Apr
72°
53°
May
81°
63°
Jun
90°
69°
Jul
90°
73°
Aug
92°
73°
Sep
85°
66°
Oct
77°
56°
Nov
64°
46°
Dec
55°
39°

Which forecast is most accurate in Conway?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
91±0.9°F95±1.4 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
76
/100rank #2
76±2.4°F93±2.2 mph6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°97° to 99°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°97° to 98°models agree0% to 0% chance
Sun±1°98° to 98°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±3°91° to 94°±21%14% to 35% chance
Tue±4°86° to 90°±9%4% to 13% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Conway

today, local time
Sunrise
06:54
Sunset
19:12
Daylight
12h 18m

Common questions

What's the weather in Conway today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Conway today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Conway today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Conway and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Conway?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Conway (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Conway?
August is typically the warmest month in Conway, with average highs around 92°F.
How cold does Conway get?
The coldest month in Conway is January, when overnight lows average about 33°F.
How much rain does Conway get?
Conway sees roughly 54 in of precipitation a year, with May usually the wettest month.

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