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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Marana weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 95° in Marana today. Tomorrow looks clear around 96°, with a 1% chance of rain.

95°73°
96°71°
95°70°
96°75°
96°74°
94°76°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeSundaymodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
96°
Clear
Today 96°·Low 72°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
95°
Mostly clear
Today 95°·Low 73°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
94°
Mostly clear
Today 94°·Low 74°·Rain 0%
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Marana weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

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Marana weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Marana swings 65°F across the year, from 106°F highs in July to 41°F lows in January, and March is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 9 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
106°F average high
Coldest month
January
41°F average low
Wettest month
March
9 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, November and December
Residents
41,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Marana and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Marana hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Marana 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
95° 73°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
96° 71°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
95° 70°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
96° 75°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
96° 74°
±6°
Wed
Light drizzle
94° 76°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
94° 76°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
95° 79°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
97° 78°
±8°
Sun
Cloudy
99° 80°
±9°
Mon
Cloudy
99° 79°
±11°
Tue
Mostly clear
104° 83°
models agree
Wed
Clear
101° 81°
models agree
Thu
Clear
97° 76°
±4°

Marana, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 106°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 9 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Marana right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Marana climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
41°
Feb
66°
44°
Mar
70°
47°
Apr
84°
56°
May
92°
65°
Jun
101°
74°
Jul
106°
82°
Aug
102°
80°
Sep
99°
74°
Oct
91°
65°
Nov
74°
49°
Dec
70°
45°

Which forecast is most accurate in Marana?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F95±1.7 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #2
87±1.3°F90±3.2 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°94° to 96°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tomorrow±4°95° to 98°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±3°94° to 97°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±4°94° to 98°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±6°93° to 99°±3%9% to 12% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Marana

today, local time
Sunrise
06:10
Sunset
18:26
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Marana today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Marana today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Marana today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Marana and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Marana?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Marana (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 78. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Marana?
July is typically the warmest month in Marana, with average highs around 106°F.
How cold does Marana get?
The coldest month in Marana is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Marana get?
Marana sees roughly 9 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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