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CheckWeather USOro Valley
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 5°F

Oro Valley weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Oro Valley's high today between 90° and 96°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks clear around 94°, with a 1% chance of rain.

94°74°
94°74°
93°74°
94°75°
93°74°
91°74°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Sundaysplit ±4°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
94°
Clear
Feels 96° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 28%
AmericanNOAA GFS
94°
Clear
Feels 95° · Wind 7 mph · Humidity 23%
EuropeanECMWF
90°
Clear
Feels 90° · Wind 10 mph · Humidity 28%

Latest for Oro Valley: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 94° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 94° Clear · European (ECMWF): 90° Clear.

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Oro Valley weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Oro Valley…

Oro Valley weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Oro Valley swings 62°F across the year, from 103°F highs in July to 41°F lows in January, and February is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 16 in of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
103°F average high
Coldest month
January
41°F average low
Wettest month
February
16 in a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 32°F
Comfortable
3 months
March, November and December
Residents
45,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Oro Valley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Oro Valley hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Oro Valley 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
94° 74°
±5°
Tomorrow
Clear
94° 74°
±4°
Sun
Cloudy
93° 74°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
94° 75°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
93° 74°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
91° 74°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
92° 73°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
93° 76°
±8°
Sat
Light drizzle
95° 77°
±7°
Sun
Light drizzle
97° 79°
±7°
Mon
Light drizzle
97° 79°
±8°
Tue
Clear
101° 83°
models agree
Wed
Clear
98° 79°
models agree
Thu
Clear
94° 76°
models agree

Oro Valley, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 103°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 16 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Oro Valley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Oro Valley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
59°
41°
Feb
63°
44°
Mar
67°
47°
Apr
81°
55°
May
90°
64°
Jun
99°
74°
Jul
103°
81°
Aug
99°
78°
Sep
97°
74°
Oct
89°
66°
Nov
72°
52°
Dec
69°
49°

Which forecast is most accurate in Oro Valley?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
84
/100rank #1
90±1.0°F94±1.9 mph7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
65
/100rank #2
79±2.1°F75±7.7 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°90° to 96°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrow±4°92° to 96°±1%0% to 1% chance
Sun±4°91° to 95°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±1°93° to 94°±1%0% to 1% chance
Tue±4°91° to 95°±6%12% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Oro Valley

today, local time
Sunrise
06:09
Sunset
18:25
Daylight
12h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Oro Valley today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Oro Valley today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Oro Valley today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Oro Valley and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Oro Valley?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Oro Valley (CheckWeather Score 84/100), ahead of the American at 65. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Oro Valley?
July is typically the warmest month in Oro Valley, with average highs around 103°F.
How cold does Oro Valley get?
The coldest month in Oro Valley is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Oro Valley get?
Oro Valley sees roughly 16 in of precipitation a year, with February usually the wettest month.

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